Monday, September 26, 2011

World War III: A Possible Consequence of a Palestinian State

    It was in the beginning of the past century that the consequence of globalization came to fruition. A complex network of alliances set the stage for the first Great War. All it took, was a spark, the assassination of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austro-Hungary that set in motion a chain of events that, by thirty years later, would claim 100 million lives.
     It is now, in the 21st century, that history my repeat itself. If the Palestinian Authority is allowed legitimacy and membership in the United Nations, unconditionally, the results could be catastrophic. One of the most crucial conditions that the Palestinian Authority must meet to be granted full statehood, is full and disarmament and an agreement to not form any military alliances.
     Without these conditions, the alliance of Hamas and Fatah would likely continue to arm and engage in attacks on the population of Israel. It is also very likely that they would form alliances with Iran, Lebanon and Syria; possibly others. Israel already has a military alliance with the United States. If in this state of affairs, there were any sort of incident, a terrorist attack, assassination, or incursion of any kind, it is likely that Palestine, whose military capabilities are far inferior to that of Israel would call upon its new allies for assistance. In this case, the United States would be forced to come to aid of Israel seeing as they'd be at war with four other nations. Furthermore, it is not unreasonable to expect that other countries allied to the U.S. would be compelled to offer material assistance. Germany, England, Canada could all be drawn into the conflict.

     Of course this is all hypothetical, but the distinct possibility exists. The winner would by unknown, although the Israel/U.S. alliance would have a distinct advantage. In any event, thousands if not millions would die.
In short, the notion of Palestinian statehood may be inspiring to those who see the potential of Arab Spring as a beautiful renaissance, but there are real world dark consequences that would be bad for all sides.

     The important question is how can there be peace when Fatah and Hamas have not ceded the right to all of the land of Israel? How can liberty be attained, when they have not pledged to give up violence and terrorist attacks? How does a state equal peace, when the peoples of Syria, Libya, Lebanon, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and others have had states for decades, but they haven't quite completely figured out peace, liberty or democracy?

This is of course hyperbole; and the preceding chain of events represent but one possible outcome. However, it is much more likely than a utopian peace where all sides choose to multilaterally give up violence and ancient grievances.

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